Regional Tourism Report – twt conservancy
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- 3.1 Demand‐Side Trends
- Economic trends 1, 2, 3
- Social trends 1, 2, 3
- Political trends 1, 2, 3
- Environmental trends 1, 2, 3
- Technological trends 1, 2, 3
- 3.1.2 International Visitor Trends
- Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand 5, 6
- Annual Visitor Arrivals from Key Markets 2006 – 2012 (Source: Statistics New Zealand)
- Annual visitor arrivals Year
- Length of Stay for Key Markets in 2012 (Source: International Visitor Survey) Country Mean Stay (days)
- Visitor Expenditure 9 , 10 , 11
- International Tourism Expenditure 2008 – 2013 (Source: MBIE, Regional Tourism Indicators)
- Spending in New Zealand for Key Markets (Source: International Visitor Survey) Country Average Spend
- Commercial Guest Nights in New Zealand 12 , 13
- International Commercial Guest Nights 2008 ‐ 2012 (Source: Commercial Accommodation Monitor)
- Activities Undertaken by International Visitors 15 , 16
- Annual participation in selected active outdoor recreation activities by international visitors (Source: International Visitor Survey)
- Annual participation in selected passive recreation activities by international visitors (Source: International Visitor Survey)
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16 July 2013
10 of 90 3.0 Tourism and Recreation Trends Relevant to the TWT Conservancy
Following a ‘top down’ approach, this section begins with an overview of global trends affecting tourism flows in general, as well as tourism trends in the context of New Zealand and the TWT areas.
This section also includes an overview of relevant niche tourism trends and New Zealanders outdoor recreation patterns.
In the paper ‘Megatrends underpinning tourism to 2020’, STCRC Tourism institute Australia states that a key element of a successful tourism industry is the ability to recognise and deal with change across a wide range of behavioural, environmental and technological factors and the way they interact. The coming years to 2020 should see major shifts in the leisure and tourism environment, reflecting changing consumer values, political forces, environmental changes and the explosive growth of information technology. No aspect of the industry will remain untouched. The challenge for tourism stakeholders in both the private and public sectors is to account for these changes proactively to achieve and maintain competitive advantage for their organisation. 1
The major trends influencing change are discussed by a variety of authors, with general agreement underpinning the trends outlined below.
Globalisation results in easier access across borders and increased tourism flows globally and to New Zealand. This also increases global competition from international tourist destinations. Potential downturn in key tourism source economies could stifle tourism flows. On the upside, much activity in developed economies has shifted to recreation and tourism in a new ‘experience economy’, where businesses not only provide services but also stage memorable experiences that can be entertaining and/or educational.
Growing incomes and increasing expectations will generate greater discretionary expenditure on travel. This demand, in conjunction with other social changes, will affect tourist characteristics and tourism flows. An increasing world population, with improved health for older persons and economic growth, will increase the potential market size. Growing urbanisation will increase the felt need to engage in tourism to escape and/or to indulge. The greater pressure on time and rising stress levels will lead to a greater emphasis on ‘escape’ through holidays.
1
Dwyer L., Megatrends underpinning tourism to 2020: Analysis of key drivers for change. STCRC 2008
2 Nordin S., Tourism of Tomorrow – Travel Trends and Forces of Change. ETOUR 2005
3
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11 of 90 Ageing of populations has implications for the type of tourism products and experience that will be demanded by visitors. Other than accessibility and other traditional and more passive tourism products geared towards older travelers, a new generation of ‘younger‐older’ people is emerging from the Baby Boomer generation, demanding more ‘active’ relaxation such as hiking, shopping, fishing, camping and scenic and historical attractions. These travellers want outdoor experiences with a variety of options. Safety issues will be increasingly important in all aspects of life. General economic uncertainty, terrorism and crime, and health scares (including environmental health scares) generate demand for destinations which are deemed ‘safe’. New Zealand is thought to be generally well placed in this regard. Individuals, particularly from developed countries, have an increasing social and environmental consciousness. They are seeking ‘authentic’ tourism experiences, and wish to be involved as participants and not spectators. Travel and leisure preferences are increasingly forms of self‐expression. Preferences for sub‐sets of unique experiences result in a new type of traveller referred to as the ‘experiential’ traveler. Holidays are becoming more specialised and increasingly carry the need for some kind of educational or cultural experience, as well as other aspects of self improvement, such as health and well being. Family holidays will remain important, but greater growth will occur in holidays for the retired and for singles and couples without children.
Political stability will be an important factor for the prosperity of tourism globally. Tourism source countries with political restraints on economic advances will generate fewer travelers. Uncertainty, conflict and terror will constrain tourism flows overall but can also benefit destinations which are perceived to be ‘safe’. Therefore, a destination image based on safety is increasingly important. The destination as a whole, and individual operators, will need to sustain this sense of safety and security. The political and economic ‘opening’ of China will transform international tourism flows to New Zealand. Middle East conflicts will substantially increase fuel costs of travel. Biosecurity will be needed to protect the destination environment. Populations exploring their own identities will create opportunities to develop cultural and natural tourism experiences.
The natural environment and climate conditions will become increasingly important in determining the viability and attractiveness of a region as a tourist destination. The view on tourism has shifted toward the part that tourism can play in reducing environmental pollution and demands on resource use. Impacts of climate change and warming trends (including sea‐level rise, changes to ocean currents and precipitation patterns) may impact demand and travel flows. Rising populations and economic development are affecting the availability of natural resources and habitats.
16 July 2013
12 of 90 Fossil fuel‐based energy will become more expensive, affecting global travel patterns and cost of travel to New Zealand. For New Zealand (and the TWT region in particular) a lack of snow cover threatens the viability of the winter ski industry and rising temperatures and UV radiation could decrease visitors’ willingness to spend time in the sun. Technological trends 1, 2, 3 Technological developments create opportunities as well as threats for the tourism sector. Faster, more comfortable, transport options increase the accessibility of destinations worldwide (as part of which low‐cost carriers are facilitating more frequent travel and opening up new markets). Increasing development and use of information and communication technology (ICT) will shape interactions between tourism operators and tourism markets. ICT will become the most important management tool in achieving results and competitiveness. New internet and networking technologies are agents of the consumer. This relates especially to the gathering of tourist information and booking channels. The smartest e‐destinations will embrace all information and communication technologies to assist visitors. E‐communities will direct trends and ‘advertise’ for the destination/operator (positively or otherwise). Knowledge is increasingly essential to the competitive advantage of any organisation.
3.1.2 International Visitor Trends
Viewed at the national level, the number of overseas visitors to New Zealand is growing but visitors are spending less and taking shorter trips. The mix of source markets is also changing with increasing numbers of visitors from China and Australia and a decline in some of New Zealand’s traditional long‐haul markets (including the UK, USA, Japan and South Korea). Even though there are recent signs of improvement, these trends are forecast to continue over the next five years. Length of stay will continue to vary by market, with traditional long haul markets staying much longer than their Asian and particularly Chinese counterparts. 4
Visitor Arrivals to New Zealand 5, 6
The number of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand has grown steadily over the past 10 years to reach 2,616,929 international arrivals in YE April 2013. The mix of visitors by origin has changed significantly over this period with a number of key trends emerging. These include: ‐
Australia is New Zealand’s largest visitor market and continues to grow. Australian arrivals increased to 1,171,504 in YE April 2013.
4 Harbrow M. Visitor Trends Report. Department of Conservation 2013 5
Statistics New Zealand. International Visitor Arrivals Data.
6 Harbrow M. Visitor Trends Report. Department of Conservation 2013
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13 of 90 China has emerged to become New Zealand’s second largest visitor market. Chinese arrivals have grown just under 90% over the past 7 years to reach 216,832 in YE April 2013. In 2006, China was New Zealand’s 6 th largest market. Visitor arrivals from New Zealand’s traditional long‐haul markets have declined sharply over the 5‐year period to 2012 but there are early signs of a recovery in 2013: ‐ - USA holiday arrival growth 2.4% YE April 2013 - Germany holiday arrival growth 3.0% YE April 2013 - Japan holiday arrivals growth 12.9% YE April 2013 - UK holiday arrivals still declining however (‐21.0% YE April 2013)
7 , 8
The mean length of stay for overseas visitors to New Zealand was 19.1 days in 2012. However, the median length of stay was 9 days. The median figure is considered to be a more useful indicator since this measure is less affected by long‐stay visitors such as working holiday travelers.
Length of stay varies widely between different international visitor markets, with Chinese visitors staying the shortest (4 days), and other Asian and short haul Australian visitors staying for up to a week. The traditional long haul visitors from Europe and USA stay the longest, as shown in the table below.
7
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. International Visitor Survey Data. 8
Harbrow M. Visitor Trends Report. Department of Conservation 2013
0 200,000 400,000
600,000 800,000
1,000,000 1,200,000 2006 2007
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012 Annual # visitor arrivals Year Australia China United Kingdom USA Japan
Germany South Korea
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14 of 90 Length of Stay for Key Markets in 2012 (Source: International Visitor Survey) Country Mean Stay (days) Median Stay (days) Australia 10.5 7
16.0 4 United Kingdom 29.9 20
United States 18.4
10 Japan
18.4 7 Germany 50.1 24
South Korea 20.2
6 Median (and mean) length of stay has decreased by one day since 2010 and it is anticipated that this trend will continue over the coming years. A decrease in length of stay means that visitors tend not to travel as far from the main entry points to New Zealand, such as Auckland or Christchurch, and will be less likely to visit areas not directly linked to major attractions and the main tourist routes.
9 , 10 , 11
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) provides trend data for expenditure through its Regional Tourism Indicators programme. In the year to February 2013, international visitor spending was 14% below the 2008 level. A trend of declining international visitor expenditure has been apparent since 2008 and this impacts the New Zealand tourism industry in all regions.
Refer to chart overleaf.
9 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Regional Tourism Indicators. 10 Harbrow M. Visitor Trends Report. Department of Conservation 2013
11 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. International Visitor Survey Data.
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15 of 90 International Tourism Expenditure 2008 – 2013 (Source: MBIE, Regional Tourism Indicators)
Average expenditure per person (excluding international airfares) was $2300 in 2012. The corresponding median was $1400. However, average expenditure varies significantly by source market, as shown in the table below.
Country Average Spend Median Spend Australia $1500 $1100
China $3600
$2000 United Kingdom $2700 $1900
United States $2600
$1700 Japan
$4100 $2600
Germany $3200
$2600 South Korea $3100 $1800
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16 of 90 Commercial Guest Nights in New Zealand 12 , 13
As an additional indicator of overall tourism activity, the Commercial Accommodation Monitor (CAM) confirms the general trend towards shorter stays in New Zealand. Despite the increase in the number of visitor arrivals, commercial guest nights declined by 10.8% between 2008 and 2012.
International Tourism Forecasts 14
The trends relating to international visitor markets outlined above are forecast to continue in the short to medium term. Forecasts released in November 2012 by MBIE show total visitor numbers increasing by 28% in the five years to 2018, with a changed mix of visitors. Traditional long haul markets such as the UK, USA and Japan are expected to continue to decline, with corresponding growth in the Australian and Chinese markets.
Visitor spending is predicted to return to pre‐global financial crisis levels by 2018 and increase by 9%. Average daily expenditure per person is expected to remain stable at $112 but the forecast decline in average length of stay by 15% to 16.9 days (influenced by a shift towards more short‐haul trips from Asia and Australia) will result in a lower total spend and economic impact of international visitors to New Zealand’s regions.
12 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Commercial Accommodation Monitor Data. 13 Harbrow M. Visitor Trends Report. Department of Conservation 2013
14
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Tourism Forecasts 2012‐2018.
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 2008
2009 2010
2011 2012
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17 of 90 Activities Undertaken by International Visitors 15 , 16
Key trends in international visitor participation in activities captured in the IVS and relevant to DOC and the TWT conservancy are as follows: ‐
Participation in walking and trekking has increased strongly over the past 10 years. In 2012, more than 1.7 million international visitors participated in this activity during their stay in New Zealand. Walking and trekking is the third most popular activity for international visitors (behind shopping and dining) based on reported participation. Demand for a number of more passive experiences available on public conservation land ‐ such as scenic and natural attractions, and use of lookouts and viewing platforms ‐ has also increased. Land‐based sightseeing declined sharply between 2006 and 2009. While the number of international visitors reporting participation in land‐based sightseeing activities is growing again, the 2012 level remained 25.9% below peak levels of participation recorded in 2005. Interest in volcanic and geothermal attractions is also fallen below the peak recorded in 2005 but is now relatively stable again. Interest in cultural attractions has been declining since 2005, whilst interest in heritage attractions grew to reach a peak in 2010. The past two years have seen a drop in heritage‐related visitation again but whether indicative of a longer term decline remains to be seen.
Participation trends as they relate to key active and more passive visitor experiences relevant to DOC and the TWT region may be seen in the charts below and overleaf.
(Source: International Visitor Survey)
15
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. International Visitor Survey Data.
16 Harbrow M. Visitor Trends Report. Department of Conservation 2013
0
400000 600000
800000 1000000
1200000 1400000
1600000 1800000
2000000 1997
1999 2001
2003 2005
2007 2009
2011 Year # vi si to rs Walking And Trekking Canoeing, Kayaking, Rafting
Fishing Snow Sports
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18 of 90 Annual participation in selected passive recreation activities by international visitors (Source: International Visitor Survey)
Demand for Park and Nature‐Based Activities 17
Mirroring trends in nature‐based activities/experiences on a global scale, interest in nature‐based activities in New Zealand is not declining although the type of activities/experiences sought is shifting gradually in line with changing demographics, psychographics and trip characteristics (with growing demand for short‐ or day‐walks and other easily accessible activities and experiences).
However, demand for more passive natural experiences such as sightseeing is indeed declining. The following chart shows this dynamic. Note that this trend is apparent in relation to all main geographic markets, including China, although here it is less pronounced than in western markets.
17
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. International Visitor Survey Data. 0 200000 400000 600000
800000 1000000
1200000 1400000
1600000 1997
1999 2001
2003 2005
2007 2009
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