Ekonometrika fani bilan tanishuv

Forecasting Questions

6

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  muqobil bashorat qilish texnikasi :
  

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  odatiy oqibatlar :
  

Causal Questions

7

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  Asosiy savollar:
  
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    Agar bugun Davlat zaxira foiz stavkalarini pasaytirsa, ertaga inflyatsiya nima bo'ladi?
    
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    Ovoz berish natijalariga siyosiy kampaniya xarajatlari qanday ta'sir qiladi?
    
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    Ushbu kursni o‘rganish natijasida yana qancha pul topasiz?
    
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    Qurilishiga ko'p pul sarflash bizni tanazzuldan olib chiqadimi??
    
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    Kontrabondani qonuniylashtirish qanday ta'sir qilishi mumkin …
    
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      … undan foydalanuvchilar soni?
      
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      … soliq tushumlari?
      
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      … fuqarolarning umumiy baxtidir?
      
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  oldingi savollardagi sabab-oqibat elementlariga e'tibor bering.
  
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  Sababiy aloqaning mavjudligi iqtisodiy nazariya tomonidan taklif qilingan (yoki Sog'lom fikr), ekonometrik tahlilning maqsadi ushbu nedensel aloqani empirik ravishda tekshirish yoki miqdoriy aniqlashdir
  

Causality, Ceteris Paribus, and Experiments

13

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  in economic thinking, causal relations are strongly connected with the
  notion of ceteris paribus (“other things being equal”)
  
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    example: consumer demand analysis – increasing a price makes consumers buy less ceteris paribus (however, if other factors change, anything can happen)
    
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  therefore, if one could run an experiment with ceteris paribus conditions
  enforced, it would be easy to verify and evaluate the causal link
  
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  this is the way things are done in natural sciences
  
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    example: with decreasing air pressure, lower water temperature is needed for it to boil and turn into steam
    → experiment: it’s easy to provide for the ceteris paribus conditions in a laboratory setting
    
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  in social sciences, such controlled experiments are either impossible, unethical or prohibitively expensive
  
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    example: political campaign expenditures – impossible to re-run the
    election with different campaign budgets