Quarterly journal of economics
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ot e th at th is is th e ac tu al ab or ti on ra te ,r at he r th an th e “e ff ec ti ve ” ab or ti on ra te us ed in pr ec ed in g ta bl es .T he re fo re ,t he co ef ci en ts in th is ta bl e ar e no t di re ct ly co m pa ra bl e to th os e of ea rl ie r ta bl es .I f da ta w er e av ai la bl e fo r al ls ta te s, ye ar s, an d ag es ,t he to ta ln um be r of ob se rv at io ns w ou ld be 61 20 .D ue to m is si ng ar re st da ta an d oc ca si on al ze ro va lu es fo r ar re st s, th e ac tu al nu m be r of ob se rv at io ns is so m ew ha ts m al le r. A co m pl et e se t of ye ar -b ir th co ho rt in te ra ct io ns ar e in cl ud ed in al ls pe ci ca ti on s to ca pt ur e na ti on al ch an ge s in th e sh ap e of th e ag e- cr im e pr o le ov er ti m e. S ta te -y ea r in te ra ct io ns ar e al so in cl ud ed .S om e sp ec i ca ti on s in cl ud e st at e- xe d ef fe ct s; in ot he r sp ec i ca ti on s, a co m pl et e se to fs ta te -a ge in te ra ct io ns is in cl ud ed .E st im at io n is w ei gh te d le as ts qu ar es , w it h w ei gh ts de te rm in ed by to ta ls ta te po pu la ti on .S ta nd ar d er ro rs ha ve be en co rr ec te d to ac co un tf or co rr el at io n ov er ti m e w it hi n a gi ve n bi rt h co ho rt in a pa rt ic ul ar st at e. Su ch a co rr ec ti on is ne ce ss ar y be ca us e th e ab or ti on ra te fo r an y gi ve n co ho rt is xe d ov er ti m e, bu t m ul ti pl e ob se rv at io ns co rr es po nd in g to di ffe re nt ye ar s of ag e ar e in cl ud ed in th e re gr es si on .R es ul ts fo r m ur de r ar e no t in cl ud ed in th e ta bl e be ca us e m ur de r is in fr eq ue nt ,l ea di ng to m an y ze ro s w he n an al yz ed at th e le ve lo f st at e an d si ng le ye ar of ag e. 413 LEGALIZED ABORTION AND CRIME VI. C ONCLUSION We know that teenagers, unmarried women, and poor women are most likely to deem a pregnancy to be either mistimed or unwanted, and that a large proportion of these unintended preg- nancies will be terminated through abortion. 36 According to a recent National Academy report, there appears to be “a causal and adverse effect of early childbearing on the health and social and economic well-being of children; this effect is over and above the important effects of background disadvantages” [Institute of Medicine 1995, p. 58]. Moreover, unintended pregnancies are associated with poorer prenatal care, greater smoking and drink- ing during pregnancy, and lower birthweights. Consequently, the life chances of children who are born only because their mothers could not have an abortion are considerably dampened relative to babies who were wanted at the time of conception. The drop in the proportion of unwanted births during the 1970s and early 1980s appears to be the result of the increasing availability and resort to abortion. The evidence we present is consistent with legalized abortion reducing crime rates with a twenty-year lag. Our results suggest that an increase of 100 abortions per 1000 live births reduces a cohort’s crime by roughly 10 percent. Extrapolating our results out of sample to a counterfactual in which abortion remained illegal and the number of illegal abortions performed remained steady at the 1960s level, we estimate that (with average national effective abortion rates in 1997 for all three crimes ranging from between 142 and 252) crime was almost 15–25 percent lower in 1997 than it would have been absent legalized abortion. These estimates suggest that legalized abortion is a primary explanation for the large drops in murder, property crime, and violent crime that our nation has experienced over the last de- cade. Indeed, legalized abortion may account for as much as one-half of the overall crime reduction. Assuming that this claim is correct, existing estimates of the costs of crime (e.g., Miller, Cohen, and Rossman [1993] suggest that the social bene t to reduced crime as a result of abortion may be on the order of $30 billion dollars annually. Increased imprisonment between 1991 36. Roughly 75 percent of never-married women who unintentionally become pregnant will opt for abortion. Overall, almost exactly half of all unintended pregnancies—whether mistimed or unwanted—will be terminated by abortion [Institute of Medicine 1995, pp. 41–47]. 414
and 1997 (the prison population rose about 50 percent over this period) lowered crime 10 percent based on an elasticity of 2 .20. Thus, together abortion and prison growth explain much, if not all, of the decrease in crime. 37 Roughly half of the crimes committed in the United States are done by individuals born prior to the legalization of abortion. As these older cohorts age out of criminality and are replaced by younger offenders born after abortion became legal, we would predict that crime rates will continue to fall. When a steady state is reached roughly twenty years from now, the impact of abortion will be roughly twice as great as the impact felt so far. Our results suggest that all else equal, legalized abortion will account for persistent declines of 1 percent a year in crime over the next two decades. To the extent that the Hyde Amendment effectively restricted access to abortion, however, this prediction might be overly optimistic. While falling crime rates are no doubt a positive develop- ment, our drawing a link between falling crime and legalized abortion should not be misinterpreted as either an endorsement of abortion or a call for intervention by the state in the fertility decisions of women. Furthermore, equivalent reductions in crime could in principle be obtained through alternatives for abortion, such as more effective birth control, or providing better environ- ments for those children at greatest risk for future crime. D ATA A PPENDIX
Crime and Police All crime and police data used in the analysis are from Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime in the United States [an- nual], except the victimization data in Figure II, which are sum- marized annually in Bureau of Justice Statistics Sourcebook of
All abortion data are from Bureau of the Census United States Statistical Abstract [annual]. The primary source for the 37. This is not to say that other factors did not also contribute to the decline in crime. To the extent that there were other forces pushing crime higher, such as crack, then the set of factors leading to reduced crime will explain more than 100 percent of the observed decrease in crime. 415
LEGALIZED ABORTION AND CRIME abortion data is an annual survey conducted by the Alan Gutt- macher Institute. Prisoners Data on number of prisoners are from Correctional Popula- tions in the United States, published annually by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Population by Age These data are from Estimates for the United States, Regions, Divisions, and States by 5 Year Age Groups and Sex: Annual Time Series Estimates, U. S. Census Bureau [annual]. Poverty Persons Below Poverty Level, by State, taken from Bureau of the Census United States Statistical Abstract [annual].
Figures used represent the percent unemployed among civil- ian noninstitutional population sixteen years and older, with total unemployment estimates based on the Current Population Survey, taken from Bureau of the Census, United States Statis-
The number of live births per 1000 population, taken from Bureau of the Census, United States Statistical Abstract [annual]. Income Per capita state personal income, converted to 1997 dollars using the Consumer Price Index, from Bureau of the Census,
Public Assistance Payments to Families with Dependent Children, from Bureau of the Census, United States Statistical
are the average monthly payment per family receiving aid. That number is multiplied by twelve to obtain a yearly average, and then converted into 1997 dollars using the Consumer Price Index. 416
Nondiscretionary Concealed Handgun Law Indicates the year in which the state enacted a law requiring local law enforcement authorities to grant concealed weapons permits to anyone meeting certain preestablished criteria. Data come from Lott and Mustard [1997].
Consumption of Malt Beverages from the Beer Institute’s Brewer’s Almanac [1995, 1998]. In gallons consumed per capita. Cross-State Migration The corrections for cross-state migration are based on a com- parison of the state of birth and current state of residence of fteen year-olds in the 1990 Census Public Use Microdata 5 percent sample.
Prior to 1994, the decennial census was the only source of data on the number of foreign-born individuals living in the United States. Data from the three Census years and 1997 were used to interpolate intervening years. All data are from Bureau of the Census United States Statistical Abstract [annual]. S TANFORD
L AW S CHOOL U NIVERSITY OF C HICAGO AND A MERICAN
B AR F OUNDATION R EFERENCES Alan Guttmacher Institute, Abortion Fact Book, 1992 Edition, Stanley Henshaw and Jennifer Van Vort, eds. (New York, NY: Alan Guttmacher Institute, 1992). ——, “An Analysis of Pre-1973 State Laws on Abortion,” mimeo, March 1989. Angrist, Joshua, and William Evans, “Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of the 1970 State Abortion Reforms,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 5406, January 1996. Barber, Jennifer, William Axinn, and Arland Thornton, “Unwanted Childbearing, Health, and Mother-Child Relationships,”
Beck, Allen, et al., “Survey of State Prison Inmates, 1991,” Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin, NCJ 136949, March 1993. Becker, Gary, A Treatise on the Family (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1981). Beer Institute, Brewers’ Almanac (New York, NY: United States Brewers Foun- dation, 1995 and 1998 editions). Bhargava, A., L. Franzini, et al., “Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model,” Review of Economic Studies, XLIX (1982), 533–549. Blank, Rebecca, C. C. George, and R. A. London, “State Abortion Rates: The Impact of Policies, Providers, Politics, Demographics, and Economic Environ- ment,”
Journal of Health Economics, XV (1996), 513–553. 417
LEGALIZED ABORTION AND CRIME Blumstein, Alfred, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey Roth, and Christy Visher, eds., Criminal Careers and “Career Criminals” (Washington, DC: National Acad- emy of Sciences, 1986). Blumstein, Alfred, and Richard Rosenfeld, “Explaining Recent Trends in U. S. Homicide Rates,” Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, LXXXVIII (1998), 1175–1216. Blumstein, Alfred, and Joel Wallman, eds., The Crime Drop in America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000). Bouza, Anthony V., The Police Mystique: An Insider’s Look at Cops, Crime, and the
Bureau of the Census, “Population Estimates for the U. S., Regions, Divisions, and States by 5-year Age Groups and Sex,” Population Estimates Program Yüklə 337,5 Kb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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